Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a88…0296 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$45 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$60
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$72
other 36% −$154
crypto 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +30.8% +18.4% 33% 33% -4.5%
≤30d 75 +8.3% -2.0% 27% 27% -17.9%
≤90d 75 +8.3% -2.0% 27% 27% -17.9%
all 75 +8.3% -2.0% 27% 27% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 27% -17.9%
10% -11.4% 27% -25.7%
15% -20.0% 27% -32.9%
20% -27.8% 27% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 55
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)75 / 82
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 26¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Yes 29¢ 28¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luis Díaz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+285%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +642%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $39 +$32 +84%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$57 +165%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$46 +210%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$28 +83%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 +$47 +188%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$47 +307%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$20 +55%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$32 +3139%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 +$21 +94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$28 +276%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$30 +148%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$55 +171%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 +$9 +56%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $14 −$13 -98%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 07 $19 −$10 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $12 2m
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3m
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 6m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $10 49m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $39 49m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 58m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $26 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $36 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $6 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $31 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $31 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $39 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 8¢ $10 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $92 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $68 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 8¢ $1 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $5 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $15 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 21¢ $4 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 29¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.03 · official $86.03 (match) · 152 history records