Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

1A 0x1a89…c73e sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$638 (+52%) realized +$639 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$63

7 days+$435

14 days+$436

30 days+$456

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+12.4%	+1.7%	55%	45%	+49.9%
≤30d	15	+6.7%	-3.4%	60%	40%	+35.8%
≤90d	17	+17.4%	+6.2%	65%	47%	+43.0%
all	17	+17.4%	+6.2%	65%	47%	+43.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.2%	47%	+43.0%
10%	-4.0%	47%	+29.3%
15%	-13.3%	47%	+16.8%
20%	-21.8%	47%	+5.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +33% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$18 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.94 per $1 lost it wins $6.94

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$148

Realized+$639

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage34d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Under	54¢	54¢	$149	$148	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$29	−$29	-100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$35	−$34	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-84%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$182	+$128	+70%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22	Jun 22	$1	$0	+4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$50	+$82	+165%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$24	+$19	+81%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$136	+$131	+96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$13	$0	-2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$161	+$170	+105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$21	+$11	+54%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$18	$0	+1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	May 31	$199	+$20	+10%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score	May 23	$132	+$138	+105%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Score	May 22	$34	+$31	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$151	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$29	22h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	33¢	$15	25h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL No	0¢	$0	28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	1¢	$2	28h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22	SELL	73¢	$1	47h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22	BUY	69¢	$1	2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$182	2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$30	2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$50	3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	96¢	$43	3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$24	3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	51¢	$13	4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$13	4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	51¢	$136	5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	48¢	$161	5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	53¢	$10	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	80¢	$11	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	80¢	$20	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	80¢	$1	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$10	7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$11	7d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	18¢	$19	7d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	35¢	$219	24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	32¢	$199	26d
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	50¢	$4	32d
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$132	32d
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	52¢	$16	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.72 · official $147.72 (match) · 38 history records