Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a8d…d10a sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,489 (+47%) realized +$1,453 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$172
14 days+$1,631
30 days+$1,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,445
other 12% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.4% +9.9% 40% 40% +8.3%
≤30d 26 +38.5% +25.3% 50% 50% +41.9%
≤90d 26 +38.5% +25.3% 50% 50% +41.9%
all 26 +38.5% +25.3% 50% 50% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 50% +41.9%
10% +13.3% 50% +28.3%
15% +2.4% 50% +15.9%
20% -7.7% 50% +4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$84 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$1,453
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage15d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $150 $193 +$43 (+29%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $148 +$162 +109%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$125 +123%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$240 +468%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $237 +$375 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $200 +$247 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $97 +$191 +197%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $147 −$144 -98%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$424 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $85 +$90 +105%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $349 +$289 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 13m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $148 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $97 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $101 4d
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $4 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 6d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $291 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 7d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $51 7d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $613 8d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $237 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $97 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $200 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $147 10d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $153 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 11d
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? BUY Missed 26¢ $74 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.65 · official $285.65 (match) · 43 history records