Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a8f…6d29 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-8%) realized −$222 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$276
other 38% +$95
sports 4% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.1% -35.9% 37% 32% -27.6%
≤30d 19 -29.1% -35.9% 37% 32% -27.6%
≤90d 19 -29.1% -35.9% 37% 32% -27.6%
all 60 -18.9% -26.6% 60% 32% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 32% -21.2%
10% -33.6% 20% -28.8%
15% -40.0% 8% -35.7%
20% -45.9% 5% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage95d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $442 $468 +$26 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$53 -88%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $452 +$123 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$34 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 16 $84 −$55 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 16 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 16 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 16 $47 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 16 $36 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 16 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 16 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 16 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 16 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 16 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 16 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 16 $29 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 16 $47 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 16 $42 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 16 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 16 $31 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 16 $37 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $34 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $445 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 60¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 55¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $387 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $64 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $100 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $36 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $35 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $18 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.06 · official $468.06 (match) · 157 history records