Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a8f…2cd1
crypto · 168 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$48 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$177
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses37 / 94
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions37
Markets (closed)131 / 168
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 37 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$38
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 12¢ 58¢ $5 $24 +$19 (+375%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? No 53¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+89%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 3? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? No 53¢ 43¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 2? No 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? No 67¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 59¢ 53¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? No 53¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? No 91¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? No 71¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 60¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? No 49¢ 47¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 75¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 09 $6 $0 -2%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $9 $0 -5%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 09 $3 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $4 $0 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -16%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwid Jun 09 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 08 $3 $0 +16%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 08 $2 $0 -14%
Spread: Guatemala (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 08 $4 +$8 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% −$29
other 20% −$13
politics 13% +$4
world 11% −$8
sports 11% +$3
tech 5% −$3
economics 2% −$6
weather 2% +$7
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 53¢ $3 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 46¢ $3 4h
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $3 4h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 58¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $3 6h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 9h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 59¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 14h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 60¢ $3 16h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $3 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $3 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $3 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 33¢ $2 24h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 60¢ $3 24h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 29¢ $4 25h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 57¢ $3 29h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 34¢ $2 30h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 43¢ $2 31h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 43¢ $3 31h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $3 32h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $5 34h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 34h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 54¢ $3 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $3 36h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $5 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $3 37h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 52¢ $4 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 53¢ $3 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -4.0% -13.1% 30% 18% -14.4%
≤30d 131 -7.9% -16.6% 28% 16% -15.8%
≤90d 131 -7.9% -16.6% 28% 16% -15.8%
all 131 -7.9% -16.6% 28% 16% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 16% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 10% -23.9%
15% -31.9% 7% -31.2%
20% -38.6% 5% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.30 · official $177.30 (match) · 475 history records