Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a8f…7d3e crypto 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-9%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%171W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day159.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$261
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 -20.1% -27.7% 40% 25% -28.0%
≤30d 397 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 29% -20.5%
≤90d 397 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 29% -20.5%
all 397 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 29% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 29% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 21% -28.1%
15% -39.0% 16% -35.0%
20% -45.0% 12% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses171 / 226
Open positions2
Markets (closed)397 / 399
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day159.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 59¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 65¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$4 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.15 · official $8.15 (match) · 2192 history records