Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a93…cb94 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$7
politics 23% +$1
other 15% +$1
sports 9% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 9% -8.0%
all 33 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -8.4%
10% -16.8% 3% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.36 per $1 lost it wins $5.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage305d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $6 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $29 +$6 +22%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $16 −$2 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $18 $0 +1%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 19 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Nov 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $3 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 24 $22 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 25 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $55 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 14h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $48 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $45 31d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 32d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $14 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $10 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $6 33d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $14 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $29 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $15 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $28 34d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $48 35d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $48 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.68 (match) · 113 history records