Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a94…822c sports 449 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,632 (-10%) realized −$14,815 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%221W / 224L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$308
14 days−$789
30 days−$2,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$14,008
other 3% −$467
crypto 0% −$220
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 54% -18.8%
≤30d 47 -19.0% -26.7% 47% 47% -26.8%
≤90d 274 -59.9% -63.7% 23% 23% -60.8%
all 445 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 49% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 49% -18.8%
10% -25.7% 48% -26.6%
15% -32.9% 42% -33.7%
20% -39.5% 36% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +33% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$299 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$14,815
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses221 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions1
Markets (closed)445 / 449
History coverage193d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 57¢ 99¢ $250 $433 +$183 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $203 +$174 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $206 +$53 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $192 +$68 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$36 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $264 −$261 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $201 −$137 -68%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$287 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $483 −$480 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$209 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $413 +$127 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $502 +$87 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $555 −$550 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $642 −$635 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $229 +$197 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $357 +$643 +180%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 01 $460 −$455 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $273 −$270 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $204 −$201 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 27 $450 −$445 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $41 +$55 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies May 27 $1,350 +$472 +35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 18 $520 −$516 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Kraken Apr 10 $835 −$835 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 10 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $253 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 27h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $377 27h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 20¢ $5 29h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $203 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $206 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 7¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $260 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $2 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $192 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $187 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $264 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $65 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $303 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.11 · official $433.55 (match) · 970 history records