Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a95…f043 other 115 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$49
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$4
politics 23% −$9
world 15% −$4
sports 14% +$378
economics 9% −$2
crypto 4% +$16
finance 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 11 +353.8% +310.5% 18% 18% -10.5%
≤90d 75 +104.1% +84.6% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 114 +67.7% +51.7% 4% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.7% 4% -9.7%
10% +37.2% 4% -18.3%
15% +23.9% 4% -26.2%
20% +11.8% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +137% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$1 · ×163.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.22 per $1 lost it wins $6.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage92d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 12 $172 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $200 −$45 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 31 $35 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $11 $0 -4%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $1 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $42 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $2 $0 -4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $3 $0 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $2,482 −$2 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $160 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $283 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $905 +$418 +46%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $369 −$1 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $200 −$1 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 43¢ $18 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 44¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $8 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $18 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $18 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $18 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $19 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 55¢ $4 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 55¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 1331 history records