Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a96…d8bb crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+10%) realized +$41 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day77.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$34
other 14% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +17.4% +6.2% 74% 63% +0.9%
≤30d 19 +17.4% +6.2% 74% 63% +0.9%
≤90d 19 +17.4% +6.2% 74% 63% +0.9%
all 19 +17.4% +6.2% 74% 63% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 63% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 42% -8.7%
15% -13.3% 32% -17.6%
20% -21.8% 26% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day77.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 53¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$11 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$12 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$17 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.48 · official $43.48 (match) · 86 history records