Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a97…0a4d other 480 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$628 (-4%) realized −$620 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%229W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$226
14 days−$339
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$512
tech 23% −$180
sports 20% +$131
crypto 5% −$102
finance 3% −$37
politics 2% −$48
weather 2% −$8
world 1% −$21
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 34% -19.1%
≤30d 122 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 29% -16.3%
≤90d 393 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 24% -14.8%
all 466 +0.5% -9.0% 49% 30% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 30% -13.2%
10% -17.7% 23% -21.5%
15% -25.7% 18% -29.1%
20% -33.0% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$620
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses229 / 237
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions10
Markets (closed)466 / 480
History coverage592d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 19 $91 −$14 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 18 $13 +$10 +76%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $76 −$33 -44%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$4 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +101%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$45 -75%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$20 +39%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $54 +$15 +27%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $29 +$21 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$27 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$29 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $14 +$35 +241%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$9 +39%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$5 +55%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $39 −$14 -37%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$12 -43%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$14 -61%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $32 +$17 +52%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$13 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $28 −$21 -74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $195 −$17 -9%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$9 +14%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$13 -32%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 +$17 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $23 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $10 2h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY AG Super Play 100¢ $70 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 4h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Kuaishou Gaming 40¢ $16 4h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY AG Super Play 20¢ $1 4h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Kuaishou Gaming 30¢ $1 5h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Kuaishou Gaming 40¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $10 26h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 55¢ $11 28h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 67¢ $23 28h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League SELL Royal Never Give Up 13¢ $2 28h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 67¢ $10 28h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 30¢ $0 28h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 11¢ $1 28h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 11¢ $0 29h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 54¢ $54 30h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 67¢ $29 31h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 67¢ $4 31h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY Rogue Warriors 3¢ $3 33h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY Rogue Warriors 73¢ $37 33h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 5¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.56 · official $213.56 · 1970 history records