Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a98…dc9c sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%40W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$58
14 days+$44
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$76
other 25% +$46
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 63% +2.7%
≤30d 67 -12.0% -20.3% 58% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 68 -10.6% -19.1% 59% 53% -11.6%
all 68 -10.6% -19.1% 59% 53% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 53% -11.6%
10% -26.8% 44% -20.0%
15% -33.9% 35% -27.7%
20% -40.4% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses40 / 28
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage31d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$59 +84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $69 +$24 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$30 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 +$6 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 +$10 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $35 +$7 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $28 +$10 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +36%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $19 +$10 +53%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $29 +$5 +17%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $31 +$5 +15%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $26 +$5 +20%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $23 +$9 +38%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $15 +$8 +56%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $19 +$5 +29%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $13 +$5 +42%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $8 +$6 +73%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $30 +$30 +102%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $21 +$36 +170%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $56 −$36 -65%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 05 $35 −$3 -10%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $31 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $70 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $69 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $40 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $23 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $23 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $35 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $28 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 7d
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 7d
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $19 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $24 9d
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $29 9d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $31 9d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $26 9d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $23 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $15 10d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.53 · official $124.53 (match) · 134 history records