Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a99…3f4b politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$4
politics 37% −$14
economics 13% −$2
world 10% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage91d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Jun 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 10 $954 $0 +0%
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? May 10 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,036 −$8 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $969 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 05 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $972 −$1 -0%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,117 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $890 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $268 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,159 3h
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $99 40d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $64 40d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 40d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 40d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 40d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 40d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 40d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 40d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 40d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 40d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 42d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $21 42d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 42d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $21 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL No 99¢ $61 43d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 43d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 43d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records