Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a9f…baf6 crypto 1548 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,133 (-18%) realized −$1,133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%1007W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$984
7 days−$865
14 days−$760
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 382 -39.0% -44.8% 42% 42% -49.3%
≤30d 861 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 60% -24.4%
≤90d 1646 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 58% -19.6%
all 1646 -10.8% -19.3% 61% 58% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 58% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 43% -27.3%
15% -34.0% 27% -34.4%
20% -40.5% 18% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$1,133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1007 / 639
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1646 / 1548
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1646 Trades
no open positions (496 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 6PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -102%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 6PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.19 · official $26.44 (match) · 3500 history records