Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa1…fe92 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3
other 38% +$1
crypto 4% −$1
politics 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 30 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage458d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $119 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 01 $0 $0 +57%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 −$1 -54%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $11 $0 +4%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $42 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 16h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $41 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $41 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $20 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $23 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $14 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $38 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $26 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $38 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $37 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $41 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $40 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $24 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $16 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records