Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa2…0484 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$719 (-13%) realized −$756 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%7W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,476
sports 26% +$1,020
crypto 8% −$268
weather 5% +$20
world 4% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +2.9% -6.9% 17% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 41 +2.9% -6.9% 17% 17% -9.3%
≤90d 41 +2.9% -6.9% 17% 17% -9.3%
all 41 +2.9% -6.9% 17% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 17% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 15% -18.0%
15% -24.0% 15% -25.9%
20% -31.4% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$74 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$756
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 34
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $76 $127 +$51 (+68%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $77 $102 +$25 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 14¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-55%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $34 −$8 -24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $163 −$5 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$64 -65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 −$60 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $75 +$11 +15%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$44 +173%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $120 −$62 -52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$42 -89%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -75%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 −$106 -53%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $255 −$96 -38%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 −$202 -40%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $58 +$110 +189%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $211 −$166 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$176 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,065 −$848 -80%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $464 +$442 +95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$720 +1348%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $127 −$88 -69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$96 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$28 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 −$185 -91%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $129 −$26 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $74 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 51m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $29 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $54 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $29 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.31 · official $415.45 (match) · 222 history records