Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1aa5…b33e politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$214 (-3%) realized −$221 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$32
crypto 32% −$189
other 18% +$7
economics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +64.4% +48.8% 67% 67% +12.8%
all 34 -9.6% -18.2% 21% 21% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 21% -12.4%
10% -26.1% 21% -20.8%
15% -33.2% 21% -28.4%
20% -39.8% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$49 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage688d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $128 $135 +$7 (+5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 15 $105 +$98 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Apr 26 $1,058 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 10 $250 +$250 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 18 $139 −$137 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 11 $342 +$342 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4AM ET Jan 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 1PM ET Jan 11 $79 −$79 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 30 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6AM ET Dec 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5AM ET Dec 08 $67 +$67 +100%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? Nov 13 $1,140 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET Nov 08 $45 +$43 +96%
Solana Up or Down on October 25? Oct 28 $74 +$71 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Oct 14 $153 +$139 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3AM ET Oct 14 $715 −$715 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Sep 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jul 07 $18 $0 -1%
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Nov 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Aug 11 $208 −$1 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Aug 11 $245 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Aug 11 $215 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Aug 11 $233 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House Aug 11 $196 −$1 -0%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Aug 11 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Trump lead by 0.5-0.9 points on August 16? Aug 11 $205 −$1 -0%
Will a Democrat win Maryland Presidential Election? Aug 11 $250 −$1 -0%
Will a Republican win Wyoming Presidential Election? Aug 11 $234 −$1 -1%
Will a Republican win Oklahoma Presidential Election? Aug 11 $252 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $105 46d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $121 81d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $129 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $139 103d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 111d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $127 111d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $111 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $121 157d
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $79 169d
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 181d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $76 186d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $67 203d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $128 233d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 244d
Solana Up or Down on October 25? BUY Up 51¢ $74 248d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $153 258d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $715 258d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 100¢ $18 295d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 100¢ $18 295d
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the SELL Yes 99¢ $18 357d
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the BUY Yes 100¢ $18 357d
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? SELL No 99¢ $18 525d
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? BUY No 100¢ $18 525d
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 569d
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 593d
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 593d
Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 623d
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 658d
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi BUY Yes 0¢ $4 669d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.67 · official $232.67 (match) · 292 history records