Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1aa5…7fdb
crypto · 42 markets active 0h ago
8.5score
+$71 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$408 · open −$338
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,662
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses29 / 12
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage578d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$499
14 days+$499
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 77¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,662 −$338 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21? No 89¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,008 +$378 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$9 +21%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $200 +$14 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $703 +$92 +13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 −$62 -61%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $301 +$32 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21? Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21? Mar 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 14? Mar 20 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 13 $85 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 13 $74 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 13 $71 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 13 $69 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 13 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 14? Mar 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 13? Mar 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22? Dec 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 12 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$149
crypto 10% −$84
weather 2% −$6
other 1% +$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,387 4m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $112 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $4 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $130 12m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $2,014 13m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,008 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $46 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $49 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $215 23h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $795 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $40 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 29¢ $39 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $703 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $200 25h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $101 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $333 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $301 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $72 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 90% 50% +7.8%
≤30d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 90% 50% +7.8%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 77% 46% +7.3%
all 41 -6.2% -15.2% 71% 29% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 29% +1.5%
10% -23.3% 17% -8.2%
15% -30.7% 15% -17.1%
20% -37.5% 5% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,662.43 · official $1,662.43 (match) · 102 history records