Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa6…0b79 other 564 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$215 (-0%) realized −$220 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%452W / 108L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$4
30 days−$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$216
other 25% −$144
world 20% +$477
weather 6% +$25
politics 2% −$412
finance 2% +$22
tech 2% +$21
sports 1% −$132
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.4% +5.3% 86% 14% -12.3%
≤30d 72 -1.4% -10.8% 92% 11% -14.2%
≤90d 263 -8.4% -17.2% 78% 19% -10.1%
all 560 -8.4% -17.1% 81% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 18% -9.6%
10% -25.0% 11% -18.3%
15% -32.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -38.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$631) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$63 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses452 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)560 / 564
History coverage236d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $194 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $107 +$5 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 06 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $217 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 04 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $74 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 04 $118 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 3? Jun 04 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $79 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 01 $30 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 30? May 31 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 31 $196 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $25 6m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $78 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $161 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $91 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $107 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 10d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 11d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.22 · official $467.12 (match) · 1735 history records