Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa8…b600 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 35% −$18
sports 7% +$72
crypto 6% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 130 +5.6% -4.4% 6% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -13.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -21.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -29.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×22.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $274 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $390 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,058 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $427 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $236 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $311 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $283 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $313 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $472 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $306 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $431 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 4h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 8h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $47 8h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 29d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 29d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $296 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $296 31d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 31d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $308 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $296 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $296 32d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $249 32d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $249 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records