Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aa8…4de1 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$245 (+4%) realized +$284 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days−$1,924
14 days+$503
30 days+$503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$10
sports 30% +$452
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -72.8% -75.4% 18% 12% -68.6%
≤30d 29 +33.3% +20.6% 41% 34% -0.6%
≤90d 37 +22.0% +10.4% 35% 30% -0.7%
all 37 +22.0% +10.4% 35% 30% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 30% -0.7%
10% -0.2% 24% -10.2%
15% -9.8% 24% -18.9%
20% -18.7% 24% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +105% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$99 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage42d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $524 $630 +$106 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $511 $383 −$128 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $96 $76 −$20 (-21%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $426 +$282 +66%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 −$11 -27%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $56 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $299 −$299 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $176 −$176 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $268 −$266 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $292 −$276 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $196 +$9 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $150 +$349 +233%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $11 −$7 -63%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $387 +$63 +16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $106 +$11 +10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $308 +$1,078 +350%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $240 +$404 +168%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $226 −$24 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $73 +$150 +207%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$100 +488%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $421 +$279 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $193 −$106 -55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$130 +794%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in May 2026? May 18 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $0 +$2 +481%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 15? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 15? May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 14? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 15? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 15? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $707 11m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $426 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $270 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $96 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $168 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,124.76 · official $1,124.76 (match) · 324 history records