Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1aad…3a5a
other · 141 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$74 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage102d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 12 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 04 $47 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $84 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $45 −$2 -5%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $304 −$3 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $172 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $46 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $417 −$3 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $418 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $363 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 27 $87 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $106 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$34
politics 23% −$9
sports 15% −$6
crypto 8% −$7
world 6% −$11
culture 5% −$3
finance 5% −$1
economics 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $29 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 15h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 16h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 27h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 27h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 33h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 38h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh BUY No 95¢ $7 46h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh BUY No 95¢ $45 46h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $52 47h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $46 3d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $47 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $65 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 68 -0.5% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 122 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 140 -0.5% -10.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.33 · official $50.33 (match) · 484 history records