Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1aad…1890 crypto 685 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate74%509W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +1.3% -8.4% 83% 53% -9.9%
≤30d 447 +1.5% -8.1% 84% 57% -9.5%
≤90d 684 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 54% -10.4%
all 684 +0.4% -9.2% 74% 54% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -10.4%
10% -17.9% 36% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 22% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses509 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)684 / 685
History coverage58d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $38 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $42 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $42 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $42 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $40 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $42 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.75 · official $74.25 · 1296 history records