Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1ab1…5b1b
politics · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$518 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$562 · open +$129
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,460
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)67 / 80
History coverage147d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 13 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days+$548
30 days+$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 81¢ 88¢ $2,019 $2,181 +$162 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1,023 $1,051 +$28 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $542 $555 +$13 (+2%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $263 $275 +$12 (+5%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $269 $272 +$3 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $66 $73 +$7 (+11%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+49%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 41¢ 57¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+40%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 35¢ 1¢ $95 $4 −$91 (-96%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+843%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 10¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 18¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Pacto Histórico win 30+ seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $1,052 +$182 +17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $1,596 +$450 +28%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $360 −$53 -15%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $20 −$19 -97%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 28 $2,494 +$102 +4%
Will Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record? May 25 $296 +$5 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,307 −$1,088 -83%
Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 May 03 $66 +$21 +32%
Will Pacto Histórico win 27-29 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 May 03 $146 +$38 +26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $55 −$37 -67%
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 25 $54 −$3 -6%
Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr Apr 25 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Apr 21 $1,023 +$39 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $9 −$8 -93%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $115 −$60 -52%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $1,791 −$340 -19%
Miami Open: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Open: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Venstre win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in t Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Represent Mar 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 26 $501 +$260 +52%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 24 $920 −$163 -18%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) win the 2026 Castilla y Mar 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 11 $56 +$49 +89%
Will Pacto Histórico win 30+ seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Mar 08 $28 −$19 -69%
BNP Paribas Open: Emiliana Arango vs Hailey Baptiste Mar 06 $57 +$17 +30%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Mar 05 $91 −$78 -85%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $181 −$75 -41%
GPT ads by March 31? Mar 05 $57 −$29 -52%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68t Mar 05 $17 +$19 +111%
BNP Paribas Open: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Caty McNally Mar 05 $7 +$13 +200%
BNP Paribas Open: Sloane Stephens vs Camila Osorio Mar 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Mar 01 $591 +$6 +1%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Tallon Griekspoor Mar 01 $1,175 +$758 +64%
Megaquake by March 31? Feb 27 $29 −$9 -31%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Feb 27 $169 +$5 +3%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 27 $348 +$11 +3%
Rio Open: Carlos Taberner vs Sebastian Baez Feb 17 $226 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $484 −$17 -4%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeti Feb 13 $594 +$6 +1%
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? Feb 13 $232 +$7 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% +$204
world 20% −$1,105
other 19% −$234
sports 13% +$682
culture 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL No 1¢ $0 4d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL No 1¢ $2 4d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $38 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $17 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $9 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $8 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $20 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $21 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $8 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $17 5d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY No 98¢ $543 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $559 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $207 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $112 5d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $7 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $7 6d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL No 1¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 +202.9% +174.1% 56% 33% +0.6%
≤90d 32 +12.6% +1.9% 28% 19% -17.5%
all 67 +3.1% -6.7% 37% 25% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 25% -12.5%
10% -15.6% 24% -20.8%
15% -23.8% 16% -28.5%
20% -31.3% 15% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,459.59 · official $4,459.65 (match) · 764 history records