Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ab4…077f sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,019 (+3%) realized +$2,195 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%23W / 7L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$2,203per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$597est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days+$354
14 days+$460
30 days+$1,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,497
other 5% +$177
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +65.8% +50.0% 75% 75% +6.8%
≤30d 22 +17.6% +6.4% 77% 36% -7.4%
≤90d 30 +14.1% +3.2% 77% 30% -7.2%
all 30 +14.1% +3.2% 77% 30% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 30% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 20% -16.1%
15% -15.7% 7% -24.2%
20% -23.9% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,980) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$272 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized+$2,195
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses23 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$597
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2,203
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1,228 $1,052 −$176 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $519 −$130 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$149 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $333 +$80 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $518 +$107 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $3,271 +$155 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $970 +$239 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $844 −$304 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $975 +$820 +84%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $2,980 −$1,268 -43%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $319 +$30 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $443 +$152 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $2,285 +$66 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5,793 +$91 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $14,058 +$420 +3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,449 −$24 -2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $11,001 +$263 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 26 $302 +$3 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $2,820 +$149 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1,769 +$254 +14%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $4,243 +$20 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $2,883 −$134 -5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $3,442 +$184 +5%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $457 −$40 -9%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $893 −$3 -0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $1,099 +$44 +4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $6,396 +$19 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $406 +$37 +9%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $605 +$14 +2%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $885 +$204 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 7¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $516 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $310 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $389 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 2¢ $10 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $508 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,154 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $413 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $437 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $519 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Maja Chwalinska 29¢ $624 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 23¢ $518 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $2,969 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $998 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $1,415 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $456 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $292 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $1 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $21 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $91 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $46 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $397 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 73¢ $3 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 73¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.65 · official $1,101.65 · 301 history records