Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ab4…e981 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+2%) realized +$52 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%32W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$84
crypto 43% +$96
other 11% +$124
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.0% -13.2% 63% 63% -10.4%
≤30d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 64% 64% -8.7%
≤90d 50 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 58% -8.7%
all 50 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 58% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 58% -8.7%
10% -21.5% 54% -17.4%
15% -29.1% 38% -25.4%
20% -36.1% 18% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$47 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,761
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses32 / 18
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)50 / 59
History coverage78d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,220 $1,283 +$63 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $248 $250 +$2 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $161 +$67 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$94 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$23 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$48 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $48 +$18 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$35 -70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$15 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $162 +$84 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$44 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 −$36 -72%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 26 $300 +$31 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 26 $500 +$24 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 22 $300 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $30 +$17 +56%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 +$38 +75%
Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 +$15 +30%
Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 +$12 +25%
Canada vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 −$29 -59%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Apr 01 $50 +$9 +19%
Czechia vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $50 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $20 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $230 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $89 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $161 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $40 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $48 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $15 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $201 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,760.68 · official $1,760.68 (match) · 103 history records