Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ab5…c486 crypto 352 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,103 (+13%) realized +$1,103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%248W / 104L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$90
14 days+$78
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$817
politics 3% +$114
other 1% −$93
sports 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +8.0% -2.2% 94% 58% +0.8%
≤30d 196 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 74% -10.4%
≤90d 269 +3.3% -6.6% 72% 68% -4.0%
all 352 +5.8% -4.3% 70% 66% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 66% +0.0%
10% -13.5% 48% -9.6%
15% -21.8% 30% -18.3%
20% -29.5% 22% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses248 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)352 / 352
History coverage604d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 352 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 750 history records