Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ab6…078e sports 1521 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,244 (+3%) realized +$17,233 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%809W / 698L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2,472est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,761
7 days+$566
14 days+$3,342
30 days+$11,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$15,481
other 5% +$1,639
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +22.8% +11.1% 71% 71% -1.4%
≤30d 188 +22.2% +10.6% 62% 62% +20.1%
≤90d 697 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 55% +0.0%
all 1507 +6.4% -3.7% 54% 53% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 53% -7.1%
10% -12.9% 51% -16.0%
15% -21.3% 46% -24.1%
20% -29.1% 37% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$382 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized+$17,233
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses809 / 698
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,472
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1507 / 1521
History coverage257d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 40¢ 42¢ $191 $203 +$12 (+6%)
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings? No 50¢ 50¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 +$10 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $9 +$3 +31%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $2,029 +$1,971 +97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$1 +34%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 22 $230 −$228 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 +$4 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $14 +$21 +152%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $18 +$7 +36%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 20 $1,439 −$1,414 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $58 +$156 +268%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $295 +$275 +93%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 +$3 +31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $173 +$127 +73%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $394 −$387 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $446 −$439 -98%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $7 +$5 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 +$2 +24%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $691 −$37 -5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +36%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $235 +$194 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $189 +$287 +152%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Bellucci vs. Bublik: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 +$9 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $68 +$72 +105%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 15 $9 +$6 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $458 +$274 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$16 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $9 +$2 +21%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $41 +$78 +188%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $64 +$228 +358%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 +$29 +388%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $28 −$27 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $186 +$115 +62%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $869 +$390 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $9 2m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 40¢ $191 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $6 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $21 7h
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings? BUY No 50¢ $100 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $9 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 71¢ $230 24h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $228 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 27h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $2,000 27h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $30 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $6 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $442 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $18 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $1,439 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $9 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $36 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $23 3d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $31 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 4d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $394 4d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $446 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.40 · official $309.40 (match) · 3206 history records