Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1abc…98c8 weather 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate69%43W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$57
other 18% +$17
sports 6% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +119.8% +98.8% 67% 67% +40.9%
≤30d 6 +119.8% +98.8% 67% 67% +40.9%
≤90d 48 +3.8% -6.1% 73% 27% -0.1%
all 62 -2.6% -11.9% 69% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 23% -11.1%
10% -20.3% 15% -19.6%
15% -28.0% 13% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses43 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage101d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +38%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28? Mar 28 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 28? Mar 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 25? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 25? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 25? Mar 25 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 25? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 25? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 25? Mar 25 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on March 25? Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 24? Mar 24 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ma Mar 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 24 Mar 24 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 24? Mar 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 24? Mar 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 24? Mar 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 24? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 24? Mar 24 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24? Mar 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 24? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $16 −$10 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $11 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 22? Mar 23 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22? Mar 22 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 47h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 28? SELL No 100¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 28? BUY No 98¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 28? BUY No 98¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28? BUY No 86¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28? BUY No 87¢ $2 84d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 25? BUY No 25¢ $1 87d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 25? BUY No 94¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 25? BUY No 79¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 25? BUY No 98¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 25? BUY No 97¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $7 87d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.94 · official $33.94 (match) · 143 history records