Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1A 0x1abe…1dda sports 309 markets active 9h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$375 (+6%) realized +$366 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%132W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$168
14 days−$169
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$86
sports 33% +$85
world 17% −$19
tech 3% −$84
crypto 2% +$23
finance 1% −$10
politics 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -13.8% -22.0% 32% 30% -26.2%
≤30d 77 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 42% -6.2%
≤90d 297 +4.3% -5.7% 44% 42% -8.1%
all 297 +4.3% -5.7% 44% 42% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -8.1%
10% -14.7% 39% -16.9%
15% -22.9% 34% -24.9%
20% -30.5% 26% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$366
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses132 / 165
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions12
Markets (closed)297 / 309
History coverage82d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 50¢ 81¢ $141 $230 +$89 (+63%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $266 $194 −$72 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 46¢ $90 $78 −$12 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+11%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$51 +115%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -59%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $66 −$6 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$25 +236%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$17 +314%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$13 +60%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 +$10 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$22 +53%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 +$10 +97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $18 −$7 -38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$36 +100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $42 −$5 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $53 +$34 +65%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 −$5 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $84 −$57 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $21 +$6 +31%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 04 $17 −$7 -44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16 +$18 +113%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $72 +$23 +32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $66 −$10 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $193 +$81 +42%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $17 −$7 -41%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $47 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $10 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 42h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $22 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $16 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $16 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.83 · official $606.00 (match) · 836 history records