Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1abe…f19f other 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$643 (-3%) realized −$799 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%49W / 78L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day117.0pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$3,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$819
7 days−$699
14 days−$628
30 days−$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$123
sports 34% −$84
tech 14% −$231
world 3% +$15
politics 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -26.9% -33.8% 37% 30% -12.8%
≤30d 127 -25.2% -32.3% 39% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 127 -25.2% -32.3% 39% 31% -12.3%
all 127 -25.2% -32.3% 39% 31% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 31% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 23% -20.7%
15% -44.7% 20% -28.3%
20% -50.1% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -42% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$69 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3,803
Realized−$799
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses49 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions53
Markets (closed)127 / 180
History coverage11d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 72¢ 95¢ $246 $326 +$80 (+32%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $368 $323 −$45 (-12%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $302 $304 +$2 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 95¢ 98¢ $247 $256 +$8 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 37¢ 68¢ $135 $249 +$114 (+84%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $223 $224 +$1 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? No 98¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $191 $197 +$7 (+4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? No 86¢ 86¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $166 $167 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $144 $155 +$11 (+8%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? No 94¢ 92¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 44¢ 64¢ $44 $64 +$20 (+47%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
England leading at halftime? No 60¢ 58¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 54¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $28 $36 +$7 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $108 +$344 +318%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $166 +$34 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +44%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $111 +$21 +19%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $422 −$316 -75%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $200 +$246 +123%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $245 +$30 +12%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $70 +$12 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 +$2 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $136 +$42 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $195 +$7 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$51 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$56 +124%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $87 +$13 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $170 +$30 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$12 +13%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $78 +$22 +28%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $126 +$55 +44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $105 +$7 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $196 +$36 +18%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $62 +$11 +18%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $121 +$24 +20%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $96 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $413 −$245 -59%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$77 +762%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $204 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $618 −$493 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $318 −$315 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $33 37m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $45 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $1 9h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $54 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 86¢ $173 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $31 10h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $4 10h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $52 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 95¢ $24 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $53 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,803.05 · official $3,801.66 (match) · 1391 history records