Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1ac3…8fb0 sports 1529 markets active 3h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%802W / 725L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$0
14 days+$31
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$125
other 4% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 54% -9.5%
≤30d 638 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 1527 -1.5% -10.8% 53% 52% -12.0%
all 1527 -1.5% -10.8% 53% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 52% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 50% -20.4%
15% -27.2% 42% -28.1%
20% -34.3% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses802 / 725
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1527 / 1529
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 71¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $9 −$5 -53%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $7 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $8 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$5 -60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$5 -54%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $5 −$3 -51%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -34%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $7 +$5 +73%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 −$2 -53%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $8 −$3 -38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +73%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$3 -48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$3 +67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$4 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $4 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $9 4h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 100¢ $9 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 78¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $7 14h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $12 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 28¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 28¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 35¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $8 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $8 21h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $5 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 42¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 38¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $5 28h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 65¢ $4 28h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 84¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 61¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 43¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 38¢ $3 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $12 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 32¢ $2 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 32¢ $2 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 27¢ $2 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $8 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $4 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.93 (match) · 3500 history records