Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1ac4…be85 crypto 576 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,984 (+8%) realized +$5,984 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate95%547W / 29L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$1,512
14 days+$1,572
30 days+$2,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,567
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 +4.5% -5.4% 92% 20% -5.2%
≤30d 353 +8.6% -1.7% 93% 25% -3.6%
≤90d 576 +11.8% +1.1% 95% 27% -2.7%
all 576 +11.8% +1.1% 95% 27% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 27% -2.7%
10% -8.5% 18% -12.0%
15% -17.4% 14% -20.5%
20% -25.5% 10% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$115 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,984
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses547 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)576 / 576
History coverage73d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 576 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $302 −$53 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $306 −$156 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$75 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$6 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $230 −$73 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$17 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $193 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $235 −$146 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $153 +$123 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$9 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$57 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $308 +$460 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$24 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $154 +$171 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $149 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $153 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $150 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $149 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $157 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1986 history records