Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ac4…e988 politics 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
world 28% −$4
other 12% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 7% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
all 49 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage322d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $61 −$2 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -7%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 10 $63 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $2 $0 +5%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 18m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $2 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $45 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $29 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $16 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $7 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $7 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $24 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $15 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $42 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records