Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1A 0x1ac5…d1f9 sports 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$650 (+18%) realized +$632 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%77W / 74L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$798
7 days−$464
14 days−$232
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$453
other 46% +$230
world 1% −$51
crypto 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 27% -31.4%
≤30d 114 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 43% -3.7%
≤90d 151 +12.9% +2.1% 51% 51% +6.8%
all 151 +12.9% +2.1% 51% 51% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 51% +6.8%
10% -7.6% 51% -3.5%
15% -16.6% 50% -12.8%
20% -24.8% 50% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses77 / 74
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions9
Markets (closed)151 / 160
History coverage46d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 74¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+39%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $46 +$14 +30%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $51 −$21 -41%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $51 −$31 -61%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $31 11m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $31 12m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 47m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 47m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 48m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 20¢ $7 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 13h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 53¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 22h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $10 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $6 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $22 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $41 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $39 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 37h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $5 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $42 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.27 · official $215.27 (match) · 336 history records