Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ac8…1c8e other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$30
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$15
other 26% −$36
sports 18% −$13
crypto 8% −$6
culture 6% −$5
finance 5% −$4
tech 4% +$3
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 65 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.3% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 135 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage102d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $346 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $111 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $59 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $39 −$11 -28%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $45 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $62 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $54 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $156 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $63 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $63 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 10h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $18 11h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $18 19h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 19h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $52 27h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $36 28h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 32h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 33h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $45 38h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $43 38h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $44 42h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 43h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $7 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.98 · official $62.98 (match) · 519 history records