Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ac9…f2af world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 13% −$6
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$1
sports 5% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -2.8% -12.0% 28% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage270d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $40 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $38 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Nov 26 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $5 $0 -2%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 23 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $34 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $39 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $31 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $20 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $18 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $37 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $37 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $37 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $32 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $32 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $32 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $9 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 89¢ $40 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $40 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $40 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 52¢ $15 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 52¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 130 history records