Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ac9…30c7 other 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,013 (+3%) realized +$1,067 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%125W / 49L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$2,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$116
14 days+$121
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,621
crypto 8% −$723
world 2% −$30
sports 1% +$70
tech 1% $0
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 31 +9.7% -0.8% 74% 19% -9.8%
≤90d 99 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 28% -9.6%
all 174 +6.8% -3.4% 72% 39% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 39% -6.9%
10% -12.6% 28% -15.8%
15% -21.1% 16% -24.0%
20% -28.8% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$52 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$2,823
Realized+$1,067
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses125 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)174 / 199
History coverage142d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $712 $710 −$2 (-0%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 56¢ $118 $226 +$108 (+91%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $154 $166 +$12 (+8%)
Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $156 $136 −$21 (-13%)
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $111 $127 +$17 (+15%)
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $133 $104 −$29 (-22%)
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $91 $98 +$7 (+8%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes 33¢ 20¢ $163 $97 −$65 (-40%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 90¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-5%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 90¢ 79¢ $90 $79 −$11 (-12%)
Will Saturn launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 66¢ $46 $66 +$20 (+45%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 64¢ 32¢ $128 $65 −$63 (-49%)
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 48¢ $70 $48 −$22 (-32%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 50¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$7 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+37%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $47 $35 −$12 (-26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+22%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 76¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $839 +$107 +13%
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $353 +$9 +3%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $186 +$3 +2%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 03 $45 +$3 +7%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 03 $42 −$1 -2%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 02 $14 +$5 +38%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 01 $10 −$3 -26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,051 −$492 -47%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $940 −$153 -16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $53 −$53 -100%
XMAQUINA FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 28 $71 +$6 +8%
XMAQUINA FDV above $40M one day after launch? May 28 $91 +$14 +16%
XMAQUINA FDV above $10M one day after launch? May 28 $64 +$3 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 28 $195 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $95 +$5 +5%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? May 28 $35 −$21 -59%
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $54 +$22 +41%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch May 27 $227 +$2 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 27 $484 +$26 +5%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 27 $273 +$27 +10%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $599 +$373 +62%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $66 −$18 -27%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $153 −$5 -3%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $62 +$4 +6%
APYX FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 24 $97 +$2 +2%
APYX FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 24 $104 +$6 +6%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 22 $32 +$2 +7%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 22 $20 +$80 +388%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 22 $580 +$22 +4%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 06 $406 +$4 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 01 $95 +$5 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $414 +$17 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $940 +$60 +6%
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 26 $1,095 +$4 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $38 +$137 +357%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 20 $1,218 +$102 +8%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 11 $473 −$473 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 11 $203 −$203 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 11 $616 +$43 +7%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 09 $490 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 03 $190 $0 -0%
Mezo FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 03 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 03 $39 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 02 $815 +$94 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 02 $20 +$9 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $539 26m
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $174 27m
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $712 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $371 17h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 91¢ $362 17h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 78¢ $234 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $147 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $23 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $16 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $33 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 2d
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 4d
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 5d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $71 5d
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 5d
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 5d
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 6d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will Saturn launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 8d
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 8d
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 9d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 9d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 9d
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 12d
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $71 12d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,823.26 · official $2,823.30 (match) · 1226 history records