Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1aca…bdc0 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 151L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$33
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$36
politics 29% −$28
sports 19% −$10
crypto 6% −$8
world 6% −$7
culture 4% −$5
economics 4% −$2
finance 2% −$7
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 154 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 162 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage99d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 −$3 -5%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $326 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $140 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $116 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $662 −$3 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 12 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $157 −$2 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $50 −$3 -7%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $503 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $111 −$2 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $399 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $450 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $106 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $119 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $271 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $217 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $228 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 35m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 5h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $55 5h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $12 10h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 10h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 11h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 19h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $53 19h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $53 26h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $58 27h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $58 33h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 34h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 45h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $43 46h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $43 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $59 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $55 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $54 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.25 · official $49.28 (match) · 709 history records