Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ace…3038 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,115 (-15%) realized −$2,138 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$254
14 days+$234
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$1,338
other 30% −$358
world 18% −$147
sports 12% −$52
economics 7% −$277
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 88% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 16 -18.6% -26.3% 62% 31% -2.4%
≤90d 20 -14.9% -23.0% 65% 40% -2.1%
all 70 -25.8% -32.9% 36% 24% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 24% -25.4%
10% -39.3% 17% -32.6%
15% -45.2% 9% -39.1%
20% -50.5% 6% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$65 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$1,445
Realized−$2,138
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage427d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $787 $824 +$37 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 56¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 27¢ 17¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $200 +$5 +2%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $503 +$122 +24%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $140 +$10 +7%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $161 +$29 +18%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 20 $499 +$145 +29%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $201 +$39 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $71 −$8 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $91 −$20 -22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $384 +$15 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $364 +$42 +12%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 02 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $20 −$10 -51%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG - Game 1 Winner Apr 06 $30 +$8 +28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 24 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Mar 24 $49 +$31 +62%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 10 $50 −$3 -7%
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner Jan 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) Jan 10 $97 +$8 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jan 09 $60 +$34 +56%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jan 09 $6 +$13 +221%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs 1win (BO3) Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jan 09 $12 −$2 -19%
Dota 2: Looking for Org vs BTC Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 09 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Nov 07 $306 +$30 +10%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 03 $479 −$20 -4%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 03 $712 −$155 -22%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 03 $86 −$32 -37%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30? Nov 03 $50 −$2 -4%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Nov 01 $100 +$24 +24%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 31 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Oct 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 26 $86 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $495 −$109 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $100 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 98¢ $200 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 80¢ $503 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 94¢ $100 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 96¢ $100 29h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 80¢ $101 29h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 26¢ $19 30h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 79¢ $20 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 30h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 79¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 19¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 62¢ $40 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 59¢ $10 2d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $645 5d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 6d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 35¢ $70 7d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $55 8d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $50 11d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $20 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 3¢ $14 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $19 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 8¢ $39 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $37 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 12¢ $28 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 13¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,445.26 · official $1,445.28 (match) · 212 history records