Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1ad1…e881 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+5%) realized +$71 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate64%36W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$46
14 days+$50
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$5
crypto 15% −$112
politics 6% +$19
sports 3% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.5% -1.8% 50% 50% +21.0%
≤30d 30 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 43% +7.3%
≤90d 40 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 45% -1.3%
all 56 -5.2% -14.3% 64% 48% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -6.3%
10% -22.5% 41% -15.3%
15% -30.0% 27% -23.5%
20% -36.8% 21% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses36 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage110d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $133 $152 +$19 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $48 $65 +$16 (+34%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $25 −$1 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $61 +$50 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $18 +$13 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $17 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $12 +$4 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $65 +$185 +285%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 - April 19 be bet Apr 29 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 20 - April 26 be bet Apr 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 - April 12 be betw Apr 14 $115 +$65 +56%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 6 be between 2,600,0 Apr 10 $42 +$28 +67%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 30 - April 5 be betw Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 2 be between 2,600,0 Apr 04 $25 +$13 +54%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 29 be between 2,800, Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 23 - March 29 be bet Apr 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 25 be between 2,400, Apr 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 27 be between 2,600, Apr 01 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 24 be less than 2,40 Mar 25 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 23 be between 2,600, Mar 24 $49 +$11 +23%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 - March 22 be bet Mar 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 20 be between 2,800, Mar 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 21 be between 2,400, Mar 23 $27 +$13 +50%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 22 be between 2,700, Mar 23 $35 +$15 +43%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 19 be between 2,600, Mar 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 18 be between 2,200, Mar 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600, Mar 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 16 be between 2,400, Mar 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $24 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.12 · official $289.12 (match) · 232 history records