Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ad2…a8ed sports 61 markets active 4d ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$265 (-20%) realized −$261 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%21W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$76
other 13% −$84
politics 5% −$68
crypto 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -93.0% -93.7% 0% 0% -95.9%
≤30d 5 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -96.5%
≤90d 5 -95.8% -96.2% 0% 0% -96.5%
all 60 -33.3% -39.7% 35% 28% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 28% -27.7%
10% -45.4% 22% -34.6%
15% -50.7% 18% -41.0%
20% -55.5% 17% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$261
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses21 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage190d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $14 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Jan 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $9 +$1 +8%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 31 $11 −$2 -15%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Dec 30 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $22 −$15 -66%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -92%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 30 $28 −$1 -3%
Knicks vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $23 +$5 +22%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Dec 30 $2 −$1 -66%
Warriors vs. Nets Dec 30 $18 +$2 +10%
Hawks vs. Thunder Dec 30 $2 +$1 +29%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 29 $3 −$2 -50%
Warriors vs. Raptors Dec 28 $257 −$145 -57%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 28 $86 +$91 +106%
Bucks vs. Bulls Dec 28 $8 +$1 +17%
Nuggets vs. Magic Dec 28 $5 −$1 -23%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Dec 27 $75 +$14 +18%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $6 +$9 +156%
76ers vs. Bulls Dec 27 $49 +$18 +37%
Raptors vs. Wizards Dec 27 $4 +$7 +172%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $3 +$2 +69%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 27 $4 −$3 -79%
Kraken vs. Kings Dec 24 $40 +$3 +6%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Dec 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs Dec 24 $4 +$7 +185%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Dec 24 $18 +$27 +150%
Pelicans vs. Cavaliers Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $17 +$10 +56%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Dec 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up $2 16d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 51¢ $4 166d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 11¢ $4 166d
Hornets vs. Bucks BUY Hornets 33¢ $1 166d
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers BUY Nuggets 15¢ $1 166d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Grizzlies 39¢ $1 166d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 90¢ $8 169d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Pistons 70¢ $1 169d
Celtics vs. Jazz SELL Celtics 99¢ $10 169d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Celtics 92¢ $9 169d
76ers vs. Grizzlies SELL 76ers 100¢ $9 169d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 46¢ $2 169d
76ers vs. Grizzlies SELL 76ers 59¢ $2 169d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY 76ers 91¢ $9 169d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY 76ers 45¢ $1 169d
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech SELL Louisiana Tech 100¢ $10 169d
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech BUY Louisiana Tech 77¢ $8 169d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 169d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 169d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 169d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? SELL Yes $0 169d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.16 · official $14.16 (match) · 146 history records