Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1ad5…e33f crypto 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$230 · open −$185
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%73W / 22L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$76
other 10% −$192
tech 4% +$69
finance 4% +$111
politics 3% −$8
sports 2% −$27
culture 1% −$11
world 1% +$2
economics 1% +$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +47.9% +33.8% 93% 93% +27.1%
≤30d 36 +20.5% +9.0% 75% 72% +14.4%
≤90d 41 +8.3% -2.0% 68% 63% +2.6%
all 95 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 38% -7.1%
10% -19.1% 31% -16.0%
15% -26.9% 19% -24.1%
20% -34.1% 14% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses73 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)95 / 117
History coverage392d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 74¢ 99¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+34%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 76¢ $43 $38 −$6 (-13%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 37¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 62¢ 57¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%? No 59¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+69%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 39¢ 60¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+54%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 84¢ 52¢ $17 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 24¢ $20 $10 −$11 (-52%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? No 53¢ 36¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 82¢ 30¢ $16 $6 −$10 (-63%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $35 +$5 +13%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $27 +$23 +84%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 22 $49 +$18 +37%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 18 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +92%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 18 $16 +$4 +25%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $32 +$8 +25%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $14 +$26 +178%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 18 $23 +$27 +117%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 18 $42 +$8 +18%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 18 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? Jun 01 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? Jun 01 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 01 $34 +$16 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 01 $27 +$73 +270%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $148 +$52 +35%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $48 +$2 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,400 and $7,500 on May 26, 2026? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? May 24 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 24 $38 −$38 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 22? May 23 $8 +$3 +30%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 23 $39 +$11 +29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $38 +$12 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $18 +$32 +186%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 22? May 23 $64 +$36 +56%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 23 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Salesforce Q1 current RPO growth (CC) be between 14% and 15%? May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k and 140k May 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 16-22? May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Feb 21 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Feb 21 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jan 16 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Jan 02 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 24? Jan 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? Nov 24 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 19? Nov 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 15? Nov 18 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 14? Nov 15 $400 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 18d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 19d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 19d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 19d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 19d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 19d
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 19d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 19d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $174 19d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 19d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 19d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.94 · official $426.69 (match) · 269 history records