Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1ad7…29c8
world · 78 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses26 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage529d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Netanyahu out by April 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $86 +$4 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $90 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $78 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $36 +$4 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $46 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $75 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $147 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $74 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$7
sports 21% −$10
other 20% $0
politics 20% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $40 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $13 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $39 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 25 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 70 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 3% -9.4%
all 77 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.29 · official $40.29 (match) · 318 history records