Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1ad8…5b77 other 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$484 (-5%) realized −$422 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%92W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,073now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$141
14 days+$139
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$135
other 31% −$243
culture 9% −$17
sports 6% −$24
finance 2% +$1
politics 2% +$16
crypto 1% −$41
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +96.1% +77.4% 50% 50% +83.2%
≤30d 16 +71.6% +55.3% 44% 44% +48.5%
≤90d 64 -37.1% -43.1% 12% 12% -17.0%
all 305 -11.7% -20.1% 30% 23% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 23% -13.9%
10% -27.7% 19% -22.1%
15% -34.7% 16% -29.7%
20% -41.1% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1,073
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses92 / 213
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)305 / 333
History coverage234d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $210 $261 +$51 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $202 $224 +$22 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $234 $199 −$35 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $202 $153 −$49 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $54 $43 −$11 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $36 +$7 (+23%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $25 −$30 (-55%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$38 +237%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $10 +$56 +542%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +240%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$22 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 +$13 +105%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $28 −$2 -6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $55 −$45 -81%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 10 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $259 +$62 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 28 $14 −$4 -30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. 76ers Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Hornets Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Mar 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-18? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 5¢ $4 39m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in BUY 3¢ $3 40m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in BUY 4¢ $5 58m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 5¢ $5 59m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 14¢ $10 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 14¢ $21 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 36¢ $20 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 9¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06 BUY 12¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,072.68 · official $1,095.00 · 1940 history records