trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 78% | 22% | -31.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 78% | 22% | -31.8% |
| all | 14 | -2.5% | -11.7% | 86% | 14% | -30.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 14% | -30.2% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 7% | -36.9% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 7% | -43.0% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 7% | -48.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $156 | $155 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $168 | −$166 | -99% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 18 | $255 | −$251 | -99% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | May 18 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 20 | May 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca | May 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? | May 18 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | May 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | May 18 | $13 | +$3 | +20% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | May 18 | $179 | +$250 | +140% |
| Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 | Feb 03 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of January? | Feb 03 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Palantir reach $258 in January? | Feb 03 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Feb 03 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Netanyahu out by 2025? | Jan 06 | $12 | $0 | +0% |