Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ada…5fe0 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+1%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$13
other 17% +$2
politics 16% −$9
economics 2% $0
sports 2% +$161
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +3.3% -6.6% 18% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 55 +7.1% -3.1% 27% 18% -8.3%
all 72 +9.1% -1.3% 29% 18% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 18% -8.9%
10% -10.7% 18% -17.7%
15% -19.4% 15% -25.6%
20% -27.3% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage594d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $127 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $142 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $78 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $13 +$8 +57%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $79 $0 +0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $220 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$8 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $4 +$5 +124%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $9 +$6 +59%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $11 +$16 +146%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 06 $13 +$1 +7%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $127 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 33h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 34h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $142 47h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $13 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 20d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $48 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $44 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.59 · official $126.59 (match) · 269 history records