Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1adb…e046 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,199 (-25%) realized −$1,199 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$395
14 days+$395
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$108
other 26% −$992
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +19.9% +8.5% 58% 58% +2.2%
≤30d 12 +19.9% +8.5% 58% 58% +2.2%
≤90d 12 +19.9% +8.5% 58% 58% +2.2%
all 17 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 47% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -26.6%
10% -20.8% 47% -33.6%
15% -28.5% 41% -40.0%
20% -35.5% 35% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$238 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage253d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$62 +31%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $390 +$277 +71%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$46 -23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$213 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $233 −$229 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $266 −$34 -13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $505 −$500 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$196 +64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $378 +$198 +52%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $230 +$148 +64%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $116 +$114 +98%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 18 $1,000 −$884 -88%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Oct 14 $333 −$238 -71%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Oct 14 $100 +$47 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Oct 10 $200 −$105 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $265 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 97¢ $667 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $390 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $157 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $416 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $233 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $232 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $266 47h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $505 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $378 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $378 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $230 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $230 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $116 3d
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes $116 244d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 35¢ $238 247d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 65¢ $91 247d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $147 247d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $95 247d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $100 247d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $100 247d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL Yes $95 251d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY Yes 12¢ $200 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records