Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1adb…2940 crypto 1588 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$151 (+1%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate66%1030W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day136.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$726
finance 5% +$28
other 5% −$112
tech 1% −$8
weather 1% −$5
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1055 -21.1% -28.6% 62% 23% -37.1%
≤30d 1562 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 27% -31.0%
≤90d 1562 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 27% -31.0%
all 1562 -11.4% -19.8% 66% 27% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 27% -31.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 15% -37.6%
15% -34.5% 11% -43.6%
20% -40.9% 10% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1030 / 532
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1562 / 1588
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day136.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1562 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $33 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $33 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $33 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records