Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1ae1…c891 sports 490 markets active 3h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,677 (+5%) realized +$10,690 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%250W / 238L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$1,756est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,951
7 days+$4,668
14 days+$6,883
30 days+$8,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$9,083
world 2% −$145
other 1% +$1,031
crypto 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 43% +6.6%
≤30d 128 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 48% +9.4%
≤90d 426 -3.6% -12.7% 46% 44% -7.4%
all 488 +4.7% -5.3% 51% 48% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 48% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -14.0%
15% -22.6% 42% -22.3%
20% -30.2% 36% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$311 vs −$285 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized+$10,690
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses250 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,756
Open positions2
Markets (closed)488 / 490
History coverage121d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 43¢ 38¢ $220 $197 −$23 (-10%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 66¢ 70¢ $149 $159 +$10 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $2,516 −$20 -1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $444 −$18 -4%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $119 +$62 +52%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,142 +$496 +43%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 16 $215 −$212 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $818 −$81 -10%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $129 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $222 +$462 +208%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $288 −$287 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $170 −$167 -98%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $229 −$226 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $713 +$194 +27%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $94 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $112 −$51 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $214 +$197 +92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $312 +$402 +129%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $858 +$1,102 +128%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $954 +$519 +54%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $199 −$195 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $153 +$29 +19%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $145 −$142 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,824 −$902 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $724 +$721 +100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,162 +$589 +27%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $312 +$163 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $169 +$581 +344%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $131 +$34 +26%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 13 $154 −$152 -99%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $216 −$212 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $710 +$1,125 +158%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $170 −$167 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $876 +$1,224 +140%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $9 +$10 +109%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $394 +$415 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $106 +$44 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $87 +$196 +226%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $290 +$331 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $334 −$327 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $124 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $105 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $827 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $244 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 35¢ $70 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.28 · official $356.28 (match) · 3148 history records